Race Winner: Kevin Harvick

Laps Run: 312

Miles Driver: 312 (500km)

Average Race Speed: 109.229 mph

Margin of Victory: 0.489 seconds

Lead Changes: 14

Number of Cautions: 8

Caution Laps: 38

First Caution: 37

Last Caution: 298

Percentage of Race Under Caution: 12.1795%

 

Actual Finish Predicted Finish
Kevin Harvick Jimmie Johnson
Dale Earnhardt Jr. Jeff Gordon
Brad Keselowski Carl Edwards
Joey Logano Denny Hamlin
Jeff Gordon Kevin Harvick
Jimmie Johnson Kyle Busch
Ryan Newman Tony Stewart
Carl Edwards Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Kyle Busch Greg Biffle
Jamie McMurray Matt Kenseth
Kasey Kahne Kurt Busch
Matt Kenseth Ryan Newman
Clint Bowyer Kasey Kahne
Casey Mears Clint Bowyer
Aric Almirola Martin Truex Jr.

 

Top 5 Precision: 40% correct (2 drivers; Jeff Gordon and Kevin Harvick)

Top 5 Accuracy: 0%

 

Top 10 Precision: 60% correct (6 drivers: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Dale Earnhardt Jr.)

Top 10 Accuracy: 0% 

 

Top 15 Precision: 66.67% correct (10 drivers: Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Carl Edwards, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Matt Kenseth, Ryan Newman, Kasey Kahne, and Clint Bowyer)

Top 15 Accuracy: 0%

 

My precision was not too bad (slightly increased over last week) but my accuracy was horrible! Let’s hope we can change that for Las Vegas next weekend.

 

Chevrolet is off to a great start, winning the first two races of the season, thanks to Hendrick Motorsports and Stewart-Hass Racing.

 

Now, let's analyze The Profit on CNBC 500 (race) statistics:

 

Predicted Race Speed: My prediction for the (average) race speed was 105.621mph with a confidence interval of 95.03mph to 113.223mph and an average of 104.127mph. My prediction was 3.30% below the actual (average) race speed of 109.229mph.

Predicted Margin of Victory: My prediction for the margin of victory was 2.741 seconds with a confidence interval of -2.739 seconds to 7.65 seconds and an average of 2.456 seconds. My prediction was 460.61% above the actual margin of victory of 0.489 seconds.

Predicted Lead Changes: My prediction for the number of lead changes that would take place was 20.667 with a confidence interval of 4.409 to 29.351 and an average of 16.7. The prediction was 48.33% above the actual number of lead changes of 14. This says that the average would have been a better value to use as a prediction rather than the predicted value itself, which is calculated based on ‘patterns’ within the data.

Predicted Number of Cautions: My prediction for the number of cautions that would take place was 7.706 with a confidence interval of 4.852 to 10.948 and an average of 7.9. The prediction was 3.68% below the actual number of lead changes of 8; but if we were to round to a whole number for the lap, I was spot on.

Predicted Caution Laps: My prediction for the number of caution laps that would take place was 44.766 with a confidence interval of 19.498 to 64.902 with an average of 42.2. The prediction was 17.81% above the actual number of caution laps of 38. The average would have been a slightly better representation of the number of caution laps.

Predicted First Caution: My prediction of when the first caution would be thrown was 22.69 with a confidence interval of -12.654 to 72.054 with an average of 29.7. The prediction was 38.68% below the actual first caution flag at lap 37. The average would have been a slightly better representation of when the first caution would have occurred.

Predicted Last Caution: My prediction of when the last caution would be thrown was 323.6 with a confidence interval of 190.258 to 372.942 with an average of 281.6. The prediction was 8.59% above the actual last caution flag at lap 298. The average would have been a slightly better representation of when the last caution would have occurred.