Normally at this point in the Chase, the talk among the garage is how the other drivers were going to catch the 48. This year it has almost become "How can the 48 get back in the hunt?"
Everyone knows that Jimmie Johnson, Chad Knaus, and the entire Lowe's team turns up the heat in the final 10 races. It's almost like they treat the first 26 as a fun house and then get to the Chase and show how they have been able to beat the system. It's gotten them to be a five-time defending champion, and always the top team to beat week in and week out.
This year, it's not just the new points system that has them behind the curve, but they aren't as competitive. At least not in theory.
Johnson entered the championship hunt just outside the top-five, thanks to only having one win. Now, after two sub-par performances, Johnson finds himself 10th in the standings, his lowest ever since the Chase was created.
It may not be the time to hit the panic button for the team, but it is very close.
Last week at New Hampshire was a big blow not just in the standings, but also team chemistry. Knaus was trying to keep his driver focused and get better, but Johnson was in return criticizing his crew chief's attempt to think positive.
Could there be trouble in paradise?
That's hard to see, but it's clear that things are not exactly picture perfect in the champ's crew. All year long they've run below average. Even their only win came at Talladega, a track where anyone could win as long as they had the right drafting partner when it mattered the most. Aside from that, Johnson has not run as many expected him to.
The third race in the Chase is at Dover, a track where Johnson has six wins in his career. This track could be a make it or break it race for this team to determine if they are going to go for the six-pack.
The only track now in the Chase that Johnson has not won at is Homestead, but Dover could be his only chance to prove he can get back in this title hunt. He finds himself 29 points out of first, so he is not behind enough to be concerned but far enough back that if he has a bad race, he could be in a major hole.
Media and crews alike talk at the beginning of the year of "how to beat the 48" and how they somehow still have that miraculous "golden horseshoe up their ass," as stated by Kevin Harvick.
This year, it's not a far off statement to say that their horseshoe has gone missing, and now everyone is searching for it. Johnson is searching for his momentum that he captured in the second half of the Chase last year, the momentum that propelled him past Denny Hamlin and to his fifth consecutive championship.
Dover will answer the question of whether Johnson is still a major title contender. At this point, the only thing that will satisfy Johnson is a win. Everything else doesn't matter.
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