Right now there is more depth in the men’s tennis game than there has been in decades. We no longer merely ask who will be losing in straight sets to Roger Federer in this year’s Australian Open final, but who will be in the final altogether. Here’s a look at the contenders and their respective draws.
Roger Federer- 15 Grand Slam titles, 22 straight Grand Slam semi-final appearances- what can I say about the “Great One” that has not already been said. The numbers really speak for themselves, but with the exception of last year’s French Open, Feds did show some vulnerability in recent slam finals. He seemed not to be present for the fifth set against Nadal in last year’s Aussie Open final, was a few easy volleys away from losing to Roddick in the Wimbledon final, and after being up a set and break, was beaten by Del Potro at the US Open final. This is not to say that making the final in all 4 Grand Slams is not an amazing feat, but I believe the competition has finally caught up with him and I'm gonna boldly go where most of the other tennis experts seem to have gone before and predict Federer's Grand Slam semi-final appearance streak to stop at 22. Prediction: Federer loses to Davydenko in the quarters.
Rafael Nadal- Though Nadal is obviously no stranger to Grand Slam finals, it was very suprising to see him win on Melbourne’s hard courts last year. After prevailing in the longest match in Australian Open history against Fernando Verdasco, it was a real display of greatness to then come back and beat Feds in the final. But this year, with lingering knee problems and family issues, I don’t see Nadal repeating the success that he enjoyed last year. His failure to win a single set in this past World Tour Finals revealed some critical weaknesses in his hard court game and I think he’s prone to be taken out in straight sets by an aggressive, flat hitting player. Prediction: Nadal loses to Murray in the quarters.
Juan Martin Del Potro- After his dramatic, comeback victory in the US Open final, against argueably the greatest player of all time, Del Potro backed his championship up with a strong showing in London. Though he has a tendency to lose interest in matches, as he seemed to have against Davydenko in the World Tour Finals championship match, I think he will continue to rise to the occasion in Grand Slam events. Del Potro should be well rested and with his punishing forehands and backhands, beefed up serve, and fearless attitude, there is no reason why he can’t make it back to back Grand Slam titles. The only thing that stands in his way-Andy Murray. Prediction: Del Potro loses to Murray in the semis.
Andy Murray- On the same half of the draw as Del Potro, and on the other side of what has all the makings to be a great rivalry for years to come, is Andy Murray. After his embarrassing defeat to Feds in the 2008 US Open final, coming into last year’s Aussie Open, Murray was oddsmaker's favorite to win the tournament. I had expected Murray to have already won his first Grand Slam by now, and in fact have guaranteed that it would be so by the end of this tournament. Many say that the reason Murray hasn't won a slam is his lack of aggression in big matches or not having one dominant point-ending shot. I think his losses at the Australian Open and Wimbledon last year were the result of being defeated by players who happened to be playing the best tennis of their respective careers in Verdasco and Roddick. His straight set dismissal at the US Open to Marin Cilic is harder to explain, but perhaps he was more injured than he had lead on. Murray has proven that he can beat the top players on a consistent basis, and with a lot less of the attention on him at this year’s tournament, look for Andy to get his first Grand Slam crown. Predicition: Murray beats Davydenko in the final.
Nikolay Davydenko- Though his best results in a Grand Slam have only been making the semifinals, and while he may not believe it himself, I believe he has made the next big step in his career beating Roger Federer in their last two meetings and winning recent titles in Shanghai, London and Doha. In the past, Davy had been able to keep it close against the top players with his counter-punching abilities, but never took it to them with aggressive shot making, especially on the big points. I believe this has changed. Prediction: Davydenko loses to Murray in the finals.
Novak Djokovic- When Djokovic was crowned the 2008 Australian Open Champion, it solidified the nickname “the Big 3” in many people’s minds. Since then, the young Serbian has struggled with mental, emotional, and physical ailments and doesn’t seem to be the same care-free prankster we saw a few years ago. This is a very important tournament for Djokovic to get back on track. Prediction: Djokovic loses to Davydenko in the semis.
Jo Wilfried Tsonga- His punishing forehand and uncanny resemblance to Muhammad Ali propelled this Frenchman into the hearts of many tennis fans, and his 2008 run into the Australian Open final propelled his ranking into the company of the top players on tour. In order to win in Melbourne this year, he would probably have to beat Robin Soderling, Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer or Nikolay Davydenko. I don’t see this happening. Prediction: Tsonga loses to Soderling in the fourth round.
Fernando Verdasco- The questions about how Verdasco, a.k.a “hot sauce”, would back up his great run last year in Melbourne were answered in the affirmative. He had a stong season which kept him in the top 10, though he struggled a bit against the top players in some big moments. Nevertheless, he is certainly a player to look out for, though I don’t think he will have as good an Australian Open as he had last year. Predicition: Verdasco loses to Davydenko in the fourth round.
Andy Roddick- Roddick has been one of the top performers at Grand Slams on tour for close to 10 years. His one Grand Slam championship could easily be four or five if it wasn’t for Federer. He was just a few very makeable shots away from winning last year’s Wimbledon and he know his window to win a second slam is closing pretty rapidly. He has made great adjustments in his return game and fitness to keep up with the changing nature of men’s tennis and with his strong spirit is always a contender. Prediction: Roddick loses to Del Potro in the quarters.
Fernando Gonzalez- 2007 Aussie Open finalist and all around charismatic guy, Ferndo Gonzalez has knocked on the door of Grand Slam immortality in the past, but has come up short as a result of some tough breaks. At 2?8, he doesn’t have many more chances to get his first slam title and unfortunately I don’t believe it will come at this Australian Open. Predicition: Gonzalez loses to Roddick in the fourth round.
Marin Cilic- Perhaps the biggest longshot that I believe is a contender this year is Croatia ’s own, Marin Cilic. After dismissing Andy Murray in straight sets in this past US Open and after taking the first set against Del Potro in the semis, it looked as though Cilic was going to make a very large statement in the tennis world. Though Del Potro stormed back and dominated the rest of the match with relative ease, Cilic still opened many eyes. Now, coming off a title in Chennai, look for Cilic to continue his solid play in majors. Predicition: Cilic loses to Del Potro in the fourth round.
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