With four episodes of 24/ 7 in the books, all of the press conferences, face offs and weigh ins behind us, its finally fight night. Floyd Mayweather Jr. and Victor Ortiz will finally stop talking and actually start throwing punches tonight. Mayweather is a 6-1 betting favorite going into the fight and should be favored. I don’t have any problem with that. Ortiz` inexperience is a big key in this fight and it seems as if many people are counting him out because of this alone. If we go back about 5 months, Victor was in a very similar situation, Albeit he wasn`t the WBC champ, yet. In April, Victor Ortiz peeled himself off the canvas twice to swipe the WBC welterweight championship from the claws of Andre Berto. In the process, dropping Berto twice as well and manhandled him down the stretch. I know what you`re thinking, Berto is no Mayweather. Exactly. But nobody gave Victor half a chance against Berto and he proved everyone wrong. Maybe he`s better than we thought?
How can Ortiz win?
Glad you asked. If Victor Ortiz uses smart pressure, punches in bunches and cuts off the ring not allowing Mayweather a chance to use his full arsenal of boxing skills early in the fight, he can win. If Victor Ortiz keeps his left hand up to block the straight right counter from Mayweather, he can win. And, if Ortiz can land that fantastic right hook to the body (you know, the side that Mayweather keeps padded and protected in training) he will win. What would an Ortiz victory mean? A lot. Don’t think that if Mayweather loses that it’s the end of a showdown against Manny Pacquiao, because it isn’t. It does push it back further though. Ortiz will definitely be lined up for a date with the pound for pound king somewhere around May of 2012 unless Floyd asks for an immediate rematch. Of course all of Ortiz` doubters would owe him a huge apology, again. A Mayweather loss would be devastating to the boxing world. Would he retire? Would he want a rematch? One would hope so, but you just never know what Floyd`s next move will be (I don’t think even he knows at times). I`d like to think Floyd would ask for and get an immediate rematch, especially if he isn’t hurt in tonight`s fight.
How does Floyd win?
Floyd just has to be himself and box. They always say in sports that the team that changes what they do best in order to combat their opponent is often the team that loses. The theory applies here too. Floyd is a master technician and if he can use his boxing skills to lure Ortiz into those rookie traps, Floyd can win. If Floyd can be elusive without being backed up and pick Ortiz apart with accurate potshots, he can win. Also if Floyd doesn’t take Ortiz lightly and doesn’t get careless, he will win. What happens if Floyd wins? Nothing really, he`s Floyd Mayweather, he`s supposed to win. He still hasn’t fought a certain congressman from the Philippines, so only an absolute blowout win vs Ortiz would be the only way to turn some heads. What would an Ortiz loss mean? Not much, he went up against one of the best fighters in the world and came up short. Not a crime in anyone`s book. He could rematch with Berto, or maybe someone at 140 lbs steps up to challenge him. It wouldn’t be the end of the world should he lose.
Predictions
Betting with My Heart:
Ortiz hurts Mayweather early with a combination and a power left uppercut dropping him in the third round. It takes Floyd several rounds to recover, rounds that Ortiz piles up on the scorecards. Mayweather regains composure by round 7 and makes a comeback. In round 10, Floyd gets cornered a blasted again, dropping to one knee. He makes the count but is clearly on wobbly legs, as Ortiz comes in for the kill. After being battered, the Ref steps in to end Mayweather`s night. The champ makes his first title defense, and someone finally shuts “Money May” up.
Betting with my head:
A cautious Mayweather stays outside frustrating the young champ with his amazing hand speed and footwork in the early going. A careless Mayweather is rocked a few rounds in and hits the canvas. Many worry that the time off has finally taken its toll on him and he`s showing his age, or maybe the distractions during training camp finally caught up with him. Floyd regains himself and continues his gameplan of boxing from the outside, only stepping in to engage when Ortiz has been stunned by a counter right hand. Floyd cruises to the finish line with a hard earned unanimous decision 115-112 on all cards. Mayweather recaptures the WBC welterweight championship in somewhat dramatic fashion.
What he does next ….. only he knows.
Joey Santana can be reached via email @: theboxingkidd@verizon.net
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