This is the third installment of my Help Me Help You blog. Each Friday I will feature one or two fantasy or baseball related questions which I receive via email at sandlotsabermetrics@gmail.com during the week.
In a 10 team Head-to-Head League which of these catchers would you take for the rest of the year: Mike Napoli, Miguel Montero or Buster Posey?
This is a difficult question because, of these three catchers, only Napoli has been playing in the Major Leagues all season. Montero is just returning from injury and Posey was recently called up to the Majors for the first time.
Clearly Posey, the stud prospect, has the most upside of the three, but is he the safest option? Napoli looks safe right now but can he maintain his pace? Finally, can Montero bounce back from his first major injury?
Personally, I see Napoli as the safest option. Napoli has produced thus far and has a track record of producing about 20 home runs and 50 RBI's. He is now on pace for 25 homers and 63 RBI's and I believe he could hit these numbers, establishing a career high in both categories.
Napoli's increased production has nothing to do with a change in his skill set but rather a change in position. Napoli has begun starting at first base for the Angels, which should provide him with many more at-bats this season. He will most likely play 7 days a week versus the average 5 days a week a typical starting catcher plays. Sure Napoli doesn't provide the average boost that both Posey and Montero do, but his other stats should be comparable to top catchers.
Montero is far from a safe option, he is coming off of an injury and his stats have fluctuated throughout his Major League career. Thus, I would ignore him in is this situation despite the fact that I personally own him in my 12 team Roto League.
Posey on the other hand, has tremendous upside. He was the No. 5 overall draft pick in 2008 and has since blown through the Giants Minor League system.
Posey hit well over .300 at every level in the minors. He has the upside to be a 20 homer candidate who could also average 80 runs scored and 80 RBI's. Though Posey might have a bit of a learning curve in the Majors, his average and potential in other categories make him an intriguing option.
If you want to play it safe, go with Napoli. He should set career highs in both home runs and RBI's while spending most of his time at first base for the Angels. However, if you want to take a slight risk, go with Posey. He will surely provide an average above .300, about 50 points higher than that of Napoli. He also could provide comparable home run and RBI numbers to Napoli once the season is done.
Choosing Napoli might take your team to the playoffs, but taking the risk on Posey now could be the move that wins a championship for your team.
Feel free to email me at sandlotsabermetrics@gmail.com with fantasy questions to feature in my weekly Help Me Help You blog.
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