This is the fourth installment of my Help Me Help You blog. Each Friday I will feature one or two fantasy or baseball related questions which I receive via email at sandlotsabermetrics@gmail.com during the week.
With all the hype surrounding Jason Heyward and Michael Stanton, there is another rookie outfielder who is playing outstanding without getting much attention. He's batting .346 with 11 home runs and 8 RBI's. His name is Brennan Boesch; what do you think his fantasy value will be from here on out?
Thanks for the question Jason, I believe that Boesch has the potential to be a starting fantasy outfielder from here on out. Though Boesch lacks the hype of a Heyward or Stanton, he has a similar pedigree to both. He was drafted in the third round of the 2006 draft by the Tigers and has since rocketed through their minor league system.
He has hit .250 or above at every level, not outstanding, but nothing to sneeze at. He has also developed his raw power potential, blasting 28 home runs in a full season at Double-A last year.
Still, your expectations with Boesch need to be tempered. He has never hit over .275 in a full season. Sure, he has the potential to hit 20-30 home runs and drive in 80-90 runs, but expect his average to drop significantly.
If you can afford the slumps that come with owning a rookie outfielder, especially one that is playing above his ceiling right now, then Boesch is the guy for you. Sure, he won't be the most consistent option, but by the end of the season he should provide third outfielder value.
From here on out, expect Boesch to blast 10-20 home runs and drive in about 50 runs. But, be prepared to handle his drop from an average of .346 to one more in the .290-.300 range. If you can stomach that 50 point drop in batting average, then Boesch could be a productive fantasy option for you.
As I said, on the year, Boesch will produce number three outfielder value, but from here on out, he will be just a number five option. Still, he should be owned in all mixed formats and starting in most.
My predictions are realistic based on Boesch's past production, if he can somehow maintain his increase in average then he will be a MUCH more valuable player. Still, in his current mold, Boesch is a viable fantasy outfielder who should be owned and starting in the majority of mixed leagues.
Feel free to email me at sandlotsabermetrics@gmail.com with fantasy questions to feature in my weekly Help Me Help You blog.
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