Length of track-2.66 miles, degree of banking-33 degrees, speeds in the draft-200 mph.

Simply put...THIS IS TALLADEGA.

It's a track that had drivers boycott the first race ever held at the speedway, and has seen some of the most spectacular and violent accidents in NASCAR.  Bobby Allison's ride into the catch fence in 1987 prompted the addition of the restrictor plate.

What that created was the act of the draft, and soon after...THE BIG ONE.  The multi-car wreck that has laid claim to many cars in it's time.  In some ways, it's a necessary evil, and just part of what has shaped this track.

Fans love coming here, some drivers fear coming here, and trying to win here is like playing the lottery.  Someone will win, but it's almost impossible to determine who.

That makes this week's picks so interesting.  How exactly will the writers make their choices for victory?

Why not let the writers themselves say it.  Here's the picks for the Aaron's 499:

 

Misan Ayuka (The Misan Ayuka Report):  Jamie McMurray

McMurray has been one of if not the best restrictor-plate racer in NASCAR.  In 17 starts McMurray has one win, five top-fives, six top-10's, 170 laps lead, and an average finish of 19.18.  In the last three races there McMurray won and finished in two of them and had a shot until getting in a crash last fall.

McMurray is having a hard luck season.  From a blown motor at Daytona, a wreck at Phoenix and Bristol with fast cars, struggling at Las Vegas and Auto Club, and a loose wheel at Texas with a fast car McMurray's day may be looking up and he is a good bet.

 

James Broomhead (The Checkered Flag):  Carl Edwards

It’s Talladega. It’s the moment when predicting winners becomes like finding a straw coloured needle in a haystack being blown about by a hurricane.  You won’t find until it hits you, then it’s too late. Seriously it was almost Paul Menard who’s name it was up there as my pick, and that says a lot, both about Menard’s 2011 to date and just how weird Talladega can get.

Ford motors have been strong all season, including at Daytona back in Feb. He’s hoping for more horsepower from the blue oval and Edwards to score a win to leave his flipping, flying finish a few years ago on the cutting room floor for the next highlight reel.

 

Kelly Crandall (Speedway Media):  Clint Bowyer

It's Talladega, just pick a name out of a hat.

 

Summer Dreyer (Next Time By):  Denny Hamlin

Regardless of what some people have called the "Jimmie Johnson curse"--where the biggest challenge to Johnson the previous season goes winless the next-- I don't believe Hamlin will stay in this funk forever.

Talladega is the type of track it is better to be lucky than good, and maybe Hamlin can pull it off.

AUTHOR NOTE:  Summer is in Talladega for this race.

 

Billy Fellin (Richmond Times-Dispatch):  Clint Bowyer

I want to pick Junior.  I really, really do.  But, if he wins and everyone else picks him, then I don't gain any ground.  Then again, since I'm not picking him, I'm taking that same chance.

Oh well. Bowyer has been on a hot streak recently.  He finished seventh in this race last season and won the Chase race at 'Dega. Going with the 33.

 

Michael Hirshbein (Fan Vs. Fan):  Juan Pablo Montoya

No commentary available.

 

Christopher Leone (On Pit Row):  Carl Edwards

Edwards has been the strongest, most consistent driver in the sport thus far this year. That’s probably going to be more of a curse than a blessing this weekend, as you think that bad luck is going to have to get to him eventually.

You also wonder, after the wreck in 2009 that saw his car go flying, if Edwards has that nagging conservatism in him on restrictor plate tracks. But that conservatism might help him if it causes him to stay way back of the wrecks and make it to the final few laps.

 

Kara Martin (Speedway Media):  Dale Earnhardt Jr.

No commentary available.

 

Ryan O'Hara (Speedway Media):  Kevin Harvick

The reason...he's the closer.

 

Dustin Parks (All About Horsepower):  Dale Earnhardt Jr.

I wrestled with this all week long, right from when the checkered flag fell Saturday at Texas.  I was thinking "Should I do this or should I not do this?  Is it worth taking the gamble, or will I lose everything?"

Then I took a look at the points and I figured I have to go for it to get back in the thick of it.  So I'm going with Junior.  After all, this is Earnhardt country.  His dad made this track.  Junior has five wins, eight top-fives and 11 top-10's here.  Plus, after finishing second and seventh in the last two races, momentum is on his side.

He's confident, it's a track he likes, and it's a place where the Earnhardt name is almost God-like.  I've gotta go for it all.

 

Sal Sigala Jr. (3 Wide and 1 To Go):  Dale Earnhardt Jr.

I'm going out on a limb on this pick, but he is having a decent season. All I am looking for is a driver who can get me a top-five finish, and away from these crap shot restrictor plate races.

 

Rob Tiongson (The Podium Finish):  Kevin Harvick

OK, let's try this again once more. I forgot how Harvick hasn't enjoyed the intermediates much over his career, but the series hits up the high banks of a TRUE superspeedway called Talladega and this is a track where a closer excels.

And who better than the driver of the No. 29 Bud Chevy to take the checkered flag here on Sunday? He nabbed a win here last April and got second last fall. I look for this California kid to capture the checkered flag once more.

 

Standings following Texas:

Sal Sigala Jr. (245) Kyle Busch finished 16th (1)

Kelly Crandall (239) Jimmie Johnson finished eighth (0)

Ryan O'Hara (216) Jeff Gordon finished 23rd (1)

Rob Tiongson (213) Kevin Harvick finished 20th (1)

Billy Fellin (212) Kevin Harvick finished 20th (1)

Misan Ayuka (211) Carl Edwards finished third (0)

Kara Martin (203) Kyle Busch finished 16th (0)

Christopher Leone (201) Kevin Harvick finished 20th (1)

Michael Hirshbein (195) Kyle Busch finished 16th (1)

Dustin Parks (194) Kurt Busch finished 10th (0)

James Broomhead (188) Kyle Busch finished 16th (0)

Summer Dreyer (185) Tony Stewart finished 12th (0)

 

Final Thoughts:  The fear factor definitely increases at Talladega because so many things are out of a driver's hands.  The reliability of both the car in front and the car behind becomes ever important, and most of all...TRUST.  Each driver has to trust their equipment, their crew chief, but the most important person they have to trust is that spotter.

Last year, a total of 175 lead changes were recorded between both Talladega races.  A record number of leaders and lead changes came at this race alone.  What is next?

Find out at 1 p.m. ET on FOX.

 

Summary of Picks:

Dale Earnhardt Jr-3

Clint Bowyer-2

Carl Edwards-2

Kevin Harvick-2

Denny Hamlin-1

Jamie McMurray-1

Juan Pablo Montoya-1