The first race of the 2014 NASCAR season is now in the books and it is time to see how my statistics held up! First, here is the race rundown.
Race Winner: Dale Earnhardt Jr
Laps Run: 200
Miles Driver: 500
Average Race Speed: 145.29mph
Margin of Victory: Caution
Lead Changes: 42
Number of Cautions: 7
Caution Laps: 39
First Caution: 24
Last Caution: 200
Percentage of Race Under Caution: 19.5%
We can clearly see I was spot on with the race winner but how about overall? We are going to look at the precision and accuracy. To distinguish between the two, let me explain; imagine a dart board. The point of darts is getting a bulls eye; if you throw a lot of darts that all land in the same area but not close to the ender, your shots are deemed precise as your grouping is good. However, if you throw your darts and they all land around the bulls eye, not necessarily on it, and are spread around the bulls eyes, your shots are accurate as you got close to the goal.
So to relate that to NASCAR, predicting a driver correctly is accurate while picking the drivers who finish in the top 5/10/15 but not necessarily in the correct finishing order, is precise.
Top 5 precision: 60% correct (3 drivers I predicted finished in the top 5; Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson)
Top 5 accuracy: 40% (2 drivers; Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon).
Top 10 precision: 40% correct (4 drivers; Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth)
Top 10 accuracy: 20% (2 drivers; Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Gordon)
Top 15 precision: 53.33% correct (8 drivers; Dale Earnhardt Jr., Denny Hamlin, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Kevin Harvick, Jamie McMurray)
Top 15 accuracy: 20% (3 drivers; Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Jamie McMurray)
The accuracy of my Top 15 was not great (only 20%) but the precision was better (53.55%); but I will attribute that to just plate racing ;)
Hendrick Motorsports also had the most wins as did Chevrolet and with Dale Earnhardt Jr. winning, that number ticks up one more for HMS and Chevrolet. Both Hendrick Motorsports and Chevrolet are on a good start to another championship.
Now, let's analyze the Daytona 500 (race) statistics (but a side note quickly; the predicted race statistics are the average value I provided previously):
Predicted Race Speed: 143.612mph with a range of 123.195mph to 164.03mph. The prediction was 1.15% off of what actually occurred and therefore fell in the range.
Predicted Margin of Victory: 0.14 seconds (with a range of -0.013 seconds to 0.292 seconds). With the caution, this cannot be evaluated.
Predicted Lead Changes: 32.5 with a range of -5.985 to 70.985. The prediction was 22.62% low but did fall within the range.
Predicted Number of Cautions: 8.7 with a range of 1.964 to 15.436. The prediction was 24.29% high but did fall within the range.
Predicted Caution Laps: 35.6 with a range of 11.615 to 59.585. The prediction was 8.72% low but did fall within the range.
Predicted First Caution: 19.5 with a range of -26.139 to 65.139. The prediction was 18.75% low but did fall in the range.
Predicted Last Caution: 180.8 with a range of 97.476 to 264.124. The prediction was 9.60% low but did fall in the range.
My accuracy overall was not the greatest for the race statistics but given that my predictions fell within the provided range, my precision was pretty good.