Last year at this time, I remember saying that much of the Baltimore Orioles’ success (or lack thereof) in 2010 depended upon how they competed within the division. In a sense, that was true; the Orioles’ first nine games were in the AL East, a stretch from which they emerged 1-8. However it turned out that the Orioles couldn’t win outside of the division either, only going 1-6 in their next seven games (out on the west coast against Oakland and Seattle). Granted injuries marred the 2010 campaign, but the fact remained that the division games didn’t really make much of a difference one way or the other given that the Orioles struggled to win every game. So the question is whether or not this team can compete in the AL East in 2011? First off, we know how the Orioles have changed year-over-year. The additions of Mark Reynolds, J.J. Hardy, and Derrek Lee are all very positive things for the O’s. Furthermore, if the first two or three months of 2010 are any indication, this team’s success depends upon the health of it’s players. However assuming that the Orioles aren’t ravaged by injuries again, there’s a good chance that they’ll be competitive. The entire AL East is different not only from last year, but from many years past. The Rays, once thought of as a free win, have been a thorn in the side of the O”s for the past few years. Going into 2011, they’ve lost Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, and Matt Garza (who was traded last week to the Chicago Cubs). Granted they still have Evan Longoria, however I would suspect that the Rays will be a much weaker version f their former selves starting this year. The Rays are one of these “what comes first, the chicken or the egg” kind of teams. Their fans have made it very obvious that they’ll only show up for games during the playoffs. As a result, the team suffers at the box office and they probably don’t have the expendable cash to keep good players like Crawford, Pena, and Garza. The team has won in the past few years, so in my opinion part of the onus here should be on the fans. Going into last season, I felt that the Blue Jays were a team that didn’t pose much of a threat to the Orioles. Wrong again; the Orioles didn’t beat Toronto for the first time until September 13th. That stretch of course included the Orioles blowing their home opener to Toronto in embarrassing fashion. However that aside, the Blue Jays played over their heads for much of last season. Looking at their roster today (which is pretty much the same from last year), I still don’t see anyone that’s overly imposing, aside from Jose Bautista and Vernon Wells. However as I said, that team won more games than they were supposed to last season, so all bets are off with regard to them. When the Orioles finally did beat them on the 13th of September, they ended up sweeping them in a three-game series. Granted Toronto returned the favor at the end of the month, however both of those series’ were under Showalter, and in the games the Orioles lost they were at the very least competitive. Then you have the Yankees and Red Sox. These two teams are a thorn in the sides of most teams and fan bases. Whereas above I was talking about Tampa losing Carl Crawford, Boston picked him him. Unfortunately this is a fact of life in MLB; a smaller team with less money brings up a good player in their system who shines for them, and a bigger and richer team ends up snatching him in his prime. The Red Sox did lose Adrian Beltre to the Texas Rangers; Beltre seemed to have some of his best games against the Orioles last year. Boston was another team that was ravaged by injuris in 2010, so assuming that doesn’t happen again you have to believe that they’re going to be in the running for either the division or the wild card. As for the Yankees, they’re still a potent team. However they’re aging, which is not a good thing in sports. If you question whether or not the Orioles have the manpower to compete with these teams consistently, keep in mind that they went 9-9 against the Red Sox last year, although only 5-13 against the Yankees. So can the Orioles compete with any of these teams? Ultimately the answer lies with them. If you play a team 18 times, you’re going to win some and lose some one way or the other. The entire division has gotten to know one another over the past few years, although going into 2011 the landscape is a bit different with some new faces and/or new faces in new places. The big thing that’s in the Orioles’ favor this time around is that it seems they finally have some larger bats to plug into the middle of the order (Reynolds and Lee, in no particular order) to back up the likes of Markakis and Jones. This also solidifies the bottom of the order, which can now feature the likes of Matt Wieters, and perhaps Luke Scott. Whether or not they’re competitive in the AL East remains to be seen, but I think that they have a much better chance than in years past. Note: The Orioles will kick off their first official team/community activity of 2011 on January 29th with Oriole Fan Fest, which runs from 11 AM - 5 PM at the Baltimore Convention Center. Tickets are $10; individual game tickets for the 2011 regular season will go on sale at the same time. I’ll write some stuff about Fan Fest as it gets closer, but if you’ve never gone I highly recommend attending.