Andy Murray vs. Marin Cilic
Roger Federer vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
The semi-final matches have been set and they feature two pre-tournament favorites and two surprises. Many experts predicted a Murray-Federer final, but not many people predicted Tsonga to have another run in Melbourne, like he did in 2008 (l. to Djokovic in final), and very few picked Cilic to make his Grand Slam, semi-final debut this tournament.
One thing the two matchups have in common is that the two favorites, Murray and Federer, both lost their last meeting with their opponent in a very embarrassing fashion: Murray losing to Cilic in straight sets in the fourth round of last year’s US Open; and after having a 5-2 lead in the third and deciding set of his quarter-final match in Montreal last summer, Federer falling apart and losing in a third-set tie-break.
Below is a more in-depth look at each of the remaining four players, along with a prediction of their upcoming match.
Andy Murray- Murray has been rolling all tournament, not dropping a single set. The knock on him had previously been for his lack of aggression against the top players in big matches. In such matches, he had been criticized for just standing on the baseline and counter-punching, while his opponent dictated play. Well we certainly saw a different Murray in his quarter-final match against Rafael Nadal. Murray was clearly the aggressor throughout. He moved Nadal all over the court. Look for the Murray Offensive to finish out this tournament.
Marin Cilic- While he deserves a lot of credit for digging deep and prevailing in three five-set matches this tournament, he was fortunate to play a Juan Martin Del Potro with an injured wrist and an Andy Roddick with an injured shoulder. Cilic played pretty poorly in the 3rd and 4th sets against Roddick, allowing him back into the match and if a few points had gone differently, Cilic could have just as easily lost in five. Cilic has played a lot of tennis this tournament and I believe it will catch up to him in his next match.
Head to Head- Murray leads the series 3-1.
Prediction- Murray will get revenge for his straight-set dismissal at the US Open and take the big Croat out in the same fashion. Murray in 3.
Roger Federer- Federer just prevailed in a match where his opponent, Nikolay Davydenko, won 9 out of the first 12 games by crushing the ball all over the court, then took a nap and lost the following 13 games, and finally woke up in the fourth set for a tight, multi-break exchanging finish. It was one of the wackiest matches that I’ve ever seen. These days, it seems like Federer is being forced to come up with big shots in big points a lot more often. Though after winning his last 23 Grand Slam quarter-final matches, I think we can safely say, Federer plays his best tennis on the big points.
Jo-Wilfred Tsonga- Tsonga’s five-set victory over Novak Djokovic was his second five-set victory in a row. Like Marin Cilic, Tsonga was fortunate to play back-to-back opponents who had to cope with obstacles other than fatigue. Nicolas Almagro, who Tsonga had defeated in the fourth round, was playing with a broken left wrist, and Djokovic was suffering from his usual breathing difficulties and stomach pains. At one point in their match, Djokovic actually ran off the court to throw up. Nevertheless, Tsonga is into the semi-finals with an opportunity to make his second Australian Open final.
Head to Head- The series is tied at 1-1.
Prediction - After two grueling five-set matches, beating a player of Federer’s caliber is a little too much to ask of the Frenchman. In his 2008 run to the Aussie Open finals, Tsonga was playing a lot better tennis, and up until this point, had played a lot less of it. Look for Federer to win in 4. -David Leiter
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