We're just days away from the Daytona 500, which means we're only a few months away from the 2012 Chase for the Sprint Cup! So before we start keeping our eye on 'how the points run now', I've picked the 12 drivers that will make this year's Chase:
Kevin Harvick:Childress is bound and determined to see Harvick win a Sprint Cup Championship, and having come so close in 2011, all of RCR's resources will be behind the No. 29's title efforts again (sorry Paul Menard and Jeff Burton). Not only is Harvick consistent, but he can win; I say with three or four regular season wins, and a couple more during the Chase, Happy may be poised to bring home RCR's first Sprint Cup since 1994.
Jimmie Johnson:Will NASCAR really go two straight years with a champion whose last name isn't Johnson? By guess is, yes. Johnson's good, there's no doubt about it, and he'll no doubt give Harvick a run for his money. It will be a close battle, but I see Harvick edging out five time.
Tony Stewart:Stewart's going to get off to his typical slow start, but with a new crew chief Steve Addington, I don't see Stewart recovering fast enough to beat out Harvick or Johnson.
Carl Edwards:Edwards is way too consistent to miss the Chase, but he doesn't getinto Victory Lane enough to actually win the championship, and 2012 will be the same story for Cousin Carl. He'll win a race or two during the regular season, but I don't think he'll make much noise during the last ten races.
Jeff Gordon:Gordon had three wins last season, but he also had ten finishes of 20th or worse, including three DNFs. I think Gordon will get off to a great start in 2012, but I don't see him maintaining that momentum, which will hurt him come Chase time.
Brad Keselowski:Keselowski had an amazing season in 2011, and I see him riding that momentum into 2012. He'll make the Chase without the help of the wild card this year, and make some early noise, but I see that fading. Next year, however...
Kyle Busch:Rowdy got the year off to a great start, just beating out Stewart to win the 2012 Budweiser Shootout. I see Busch having several other wins this year, but I don't see him putting together a consistent enough run to really challenge for the Sprint Cup. Frankly, I'm not sure Busch is really mature enough yet to win the title. When Busch overcomes his attitude issues, he will without a doubt be a multi-time Cup champion. Until then, he'll finish in the lower half of the standings.
Ryan Newman:I'll admit, I'm definitely one of the conspiracy theorists that think Hendrick is giving the Stewart Haas team equipment that would never be given to Jimmie Johnson... but with Stewart winning the championship, maybe I was wrong (just maybe). I don't if it's Newman's equipment, his chemistry with his crew chief, or something else, but hopefully winning the title has inspired Smoke to fix whatever is wrong with this No. 39 team. I think he has, so Newman will definitely make this year's Chase; I have him as the a wild car coming in. Beyond that, though, I just don't see him doing much.
Matt Kenseth:Isn't it amazing that Kenseth won the title in 2003 and I only have him finishing ninth in points? I do, too. Maybe Roush has just fallen behind the competition; maybe Edwards has just taken over as the No. 1 driver over there. Either way, I don't have much reason to put Kenseth any higher in standings than I have him here.
Denny Hamlin:Hamlin has never missed the Chase in his Sprint Cup career, and despite his struggles last year I don't see that streak ending. With Darian Grubb taking over crew chief duties from Mike Ford, it's going to take time to build chemistry. Hamlin will have a much better year than last, but it will take time for him to get back into title contention.
Dale Earnhardt, Jr.:Earnhardt, Jr. had a great 2011 season, collecting four top fives and 12 top tens. His chemistry with crew chief Steve Letarte seems to be fantastic, and his attitude is much improved since he's began to run better. But, really don't see Junior making waves this year; I think he'll remain winless, and finish fairly low in the Chase.
By the way, if you're hearing a loud, angry noise, it's probably the Junior Nation mob gathering at my front door.
Greg Biffle:Honestly? I really just needed a 12th driver in the Chase. Despite missing the Chase last year, he's made it three of the last four years and I think he'll make his return to the title race this year.
Who I don't have making the Chase:
Kasey Kahne:Yes, I hear you. “But Jen! He's driving a Hendrick car!” Well, so is Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (cue the angry mob). He might be in Hendrick equipment, but he's also driving what I refer to as the Kenny Schrader car, and if you know anything about that reference, you probably don't think Kahne will make the Chase either. Kahne is in a whole new situation, and it's going to take that team a while to get into title contention.
Joey Logano:I would love to say Logano is going to make the Chase, because I think his career- and his future with Joe Gibbs Racing- depends on it. Unfortunately, I just don't think it'll happen. Logano finished 24th in points last year, so a 12 position jump into the race for the Cup is a bit of a stretch. And when he doesn't make the Chase, it will be very interesting to see what happens next in his career.
All stats from Racing Reference.
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